11 Mar

Canadian Economy Ended 2020 On An Extremely Upbeat Note.

General

Posted by: Gary Badesha

Great article from our Economist talking about how we all did in this crazy year of 2020. Check it out

Canadian Economy Ended 2020 On An Extremely Upbeat Note.

Strong Canadian Economic Growth in Q4 and January

This morning’s Stats Canada release showed that economic growth in the final quarter of last year was a surprisingly strong 9.6% (annualized). The surge in growth in January was even more interesting, estimated at a 0.5% (not annualized) pace. If these numbers pan out, it means that Canada did not suffer a contraction during the second wave and ensuing lockdown.

The January figure is noteworthy in that retail sales plunged as nonessential stores were closed in key parts of the country as we faced surging numbers of COVID cases. The strength came from resources, housing and government spending and the mild weather likely helped.

At its last meeting in January, the Bank of Canada (BoC) estimated that Q4 growth would come in at 4.8% (half the actual 9.6% pace) and that there would be a net contraction in Q1 of this year. The strength in Q4 emanated from very hot housing, some business investment in machinery, government outlays and a resurgence in inventory accumulation. Inventory build-up is often seen as a negative sign reflecting weak consumer spending. But maybe firms were preparing for a considerable rebound in demand.

Economists on Bay Street are upwardly revising their growth forecasts for this year, and no doubt the BoC will do so again when it meets next Wednesday. Clearly, the economy has been more resilient than expected. Will that change the Bank’s assessment of the continued need for monetary stimulus? Probably not. But it will likely temper their view that the next rate hike will not be until 2023, a sentiment the BoC has asserted regularly in the past.

Consumer spending was weak at the end of last year, not surprisingly given many stores were closed and a stay-at-home order was in place in several highly populated areas. Households have been hoarding cash. The savings rate declined to 12.7% in Q4 from as high as 27.8% earlier in the year, but that is still way above normal. Accumulated savings will provide a backstop for robust consumer spending once the economy opens up.

For all of 2020, the Canadian economy contracted by 5.4%–a substantially harder hit than in the US, which posted a 3.5% decline.

Bottom Line

The stronger-than-expected economy raises the potential that there is enough stimulus in the economy. The Trudeau government appears to be determined to hike government spending meaningfully in the next federal budget (likely coming this Spring). We know it is the government’s predilection to juice the economy for another couple of years, but that could well deserve a rethink.

Written by DLC’s Chief Economist Dr. Sherry Cooper

4 Mar

6 Important Questions to Ask Before a Big Home Renovation

General

Posted by: Gary Badesha

6 Important Questions to Ask Before a Big Home Renovation.

So you want to make a major home renovation. Congratulations! Now, you’ve got to find the right contractor for the job. While doing a thorough online search or asking family and friends is an important first step, once you find a potential contractor, it’s time to start treating the process like a job interview. Being prepared with the right questions protects you from future headaches, but also ensures that you’re happy with the end result.

Hiring a contractor for your big home reno? Ask these important questions to make sure you’re picking the right contractor.

  1. What is your experience in home renovation?

This question can help you determine how long the contractor has been in the business, whether they’ve worked with similar challenges as those in your home and how they ensure that projects are completed on time. With this question, you get full insight into their methodology.

You can also find contractors in your area that might have positive Yelp reviews or other social media to see if others are happy with their work.

  1. Do you have a contracting license?

Depending on where you live, there are different requirements for what type of license a contractor has to hold. Check the laws in your region to see what might apply, and ask potential contractors directly whether they hold those licenses.

  1. Do you carry the appropriate insurance?

According to the Canadian Homeowner’s Association, hiring people without the proper insurance could put you at legal and financial risk should something happen in your home. Protect yourself (and the workers improving your home) by checking off this box in the beginning, and ensure they have both liability insurance and worker’s compensation.

  1. Will we get a written contract?

This should be a given if you’re working with a contractor because if the answer is no, don’t even bother moving forward with the interview. The CHBA says contracts should cover the description of the work, the materials used and the price of the job. You should also take this as an opportunity to figure out your payment schedule, as the Better Business Bureau in the U.S. says that you should never pay the full price of the job upfront, and the specific timeline for completing your project.

Contractors should also always offer a warranty in writing that informs you of what is covered and for how long.

  1. Can we get in touch with your past clients?

A contractor should be proud of their past work. Take this as an opportunity to figure out how contractors approach their work, whether they have effectively handled disputes and fact-check what contractors tell you about their working style.

  1. Will you be responsible for building permits?

If there is a chance that your building requires permits, you want to make sure that your contractor is prepared in this area. Square One Insurance says you should try to be present for a contractor’s home inspection to ensure that you fully understand their feedback, and anticipate if any changes in your home need to happen.

Published by First Canadian Title